Inside politics | Azerbaijan–Iran Relations and Rising U.S. Influence in the South Caucasus – Feb 23, 2026

AnewZ

Ahmad Hashemi, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia program at the Global Policy Institute, provides several insights regarding the evolving relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran, as well as the broader geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Russia. A summary of his talking points:

Azerbaijan’s Strategic Ambition: Hashemi notes that Azerbaijan aims to become a central transportation hub for both East-West (China to Europe) and North-South (India/Iran to Russia) corridors. This involves a “multivector” foreign policy to secure agreements with various regional powers despite existing tensions.

Key Infrastructure Projects: He highlights the Astara-Rasht railway and bridge constructions over the Aras River as critical priorities for expanding Azerbaijan’s status as a transport and energy hub.

Iran’s Weakened Position: Hashemi argues that Iran is currently in a weakened state, particularly following recent military tensions with Israel and the U.S. in mid-2025. Consequently, Iran is forced to seek more “neighborly” and constructive relationships with countries like Azerbaijan to maintain regional stability.

The “Pariah State” Barrier: Despite lofty goals for trade expansion (such as a $10 billion target), Hashemi emphasizes that Iran’s status as a heavily sanctioned “pariah state” and a sponsor of terrorism creates a significant “but” to the actual realization of these economic projects.

Risk of Mass Migration: He expresses concern that if a war between the U.S. and Iran were to become prolonged, Azerbaijan and Turkey could face a massive “exodus” of refugees, as other neighboring options like Afghanistan or Pakistan are too unstable.

U.S. vs. China Dynamics: Hashemi views the Zangezur Corridor (which he notes is sometimes called the “Trump Route” or “TRIPP”) through the lens of U.S. strategy. He suggests the U.S. supports India’s involvement in regional corridors specifically to curb China’s global ambitions.

Skepticism Toward Russia: He remains skeptical that Russia, under President Putin, can currently act as a “constructive player” in these regional integration efforts due to its own international isolation.

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