I told BBC Radio 5 Live that while the US-Israel war of choice has shifted the leadership dynamics in Tehran, it has inadvertently strengthened the regime’s grip and delayed any internal movement toward democracy and regime change.

Key Takeaways from the Interview

  • Leadership Shift: The war has replaced “Khamenei Senior” with “Khamenei Junior,” who is more hardline. However, due to his uncertain health and disappearance from public view, the IRGC has taken primary control of the country.
  • Delay in Regime Change: Despite 70–80% of the population opposing the Islamist regime, the war has created a “rally around the flag” effect. The prospect of an uprising or regime change—which seemed possible following the bloody crackdown on mass protests in early 2026—is now considered “off the table” for the foreseeable future.
  • Geopolitical Empowerment: The war has allowed Iran to project power more aggressively than before. Most notably, their ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt 20% of the world’s energy supply has empowered the regime and caused global oil prices to spike.
  • Internal Governance: Iran is a “semi-dictatorship” rather than a one-man show; even with the Supreme Leader potentially incapacitated, the system remains functional because power is diversified among various structures, such as the IRGC.

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